Monthly Archives: May 2015

Monday links: The Bernank, Macro view, & more

Came across some worthwhile links from the blogosphere and Twitter today, and thought I’d point you to ’em.

We’ve got some videos and posts on The Ben Bernank, a macro view of the economy and markets, interviews with Bruce Berkowitz and David Einhorn, and more for you in today’s links.

1. Bear Mountain Bull wraps up some recent interviews and links on The Ben Bernank.

2. Abnormal Returns brings us 3 non-Bernanke videos, including interviews with investors Bruce Berkowitz and David Einhorn.

3. Catching up on the Macro view with Gregor Macdonald and the health of the stock market with Joe Fahmy.

Peruse what you like, leave the rest. Remember, our ability to process and retain information is finite, so focus on what’s most important to you in your pursuit of market education and limit your exposure to extraneous “noise”.

Thanks, as always, for stopping by.

Discover the ideas Earning Money

Generating income online is excellent, awesome and incredibly interesting however, you first want the right and an optimistic mindset. Everything begins using the brain. And when you alter your mind for doing things and also the right direction, then everything will push yourself instantly. For achievement to become accomplished, we have to take out all of the stops and employ all you have. And don’t forget that the thoughts are the finest resource you’ve and no-one is wiser than you. Knowing that, then fixed on the highway.

Second, be familiar with the straightforward proven fact that every problem is actually an chance in disguise. Just consider it. Many people on the planet are stuck inside a stalemate job you actually hate. And they couldn’t muster the courage to simply leave and pursue their dreams due to fear disgrace. How to stop a 9-5 job, almost as much ast I personally don’t like minimizing pay, walk into the unknown? Running out of energy not do.

Stealth bull market leader: DTG

Here’s one some of us may have missed in the great Bull Market of Disbelief (2009-present): Dollar Thrifty Auto Group (DTG). 

Check out the 3 year pattern on this stock, from the collapse of ’08 to the bull market recovery of 2009 and beyond. Yes, you see that chart right. DTG has risen from its early ’09 lows below 80 cents to over $81 today. That’s not a “10-bagger”, it’s a 100-bagger, or a 10,000% gain. 

I happened to notice this chart while scanning through some names in the diversified services sector today on freestockcharts.com. When I backed up from the daily chart to view DTG on a weekly timeframe, the phenomenal rise and long-term recovery pattern were staring me right in the face. 

Here was a name I had totally lost track of for at least the past year or more. I wondered if anyone else was long DTG or even tracking it, as I couldn’t recall many mentions of it in my Twitter stream or in the trading blogs I read. 

While glancing through the archived $DTG tweets on StockTwits, I noticed some interesting things. 

First off, the stock is not one of the hotly followed securities on StockTwits, with only 8 people following the ticker (some hot stocks or futures contracts will boast over 1,000 followers on ST). It is under-followed and probably under-owned among retail investors, although it is very widely held among institutions.

Secondly, the stock has been lifted higher in recent months thanks to a protracted bidding war among major car-rental chains Avis and Hertz. In fact, the two firms have been fighting for DTG since April, 2010. Here’s a funny little tweet from Leigh Drogen, way back in September of 2010, which illustrates that fact. 

Finally, many of the archived tweets seem to highlight the fact that many of us just plain missed it, or were reluctant to go long after witnessing the first 1,000% advance. A great many also seemed to want to play DTG short-term for swing trades on the long or short side, but few traders offered a verified account of their ownership of DTG over the long haul. 

So here’s a stealth bull market leader that many of us seem to have missed. Something I found interesting on a day when many of the stocks in my watchlist are chopping around or breaking down. I guess it really does pay to take note of the market leaders, go long, and acquire the wherewithal to sit tight (with proper risk management in place).

Hedgeye on government shutdown

Must read note from Keith McCullough at Hedgeye on the government shutdown:

“Finally, we’re here. This week we’re finally going to see US Professional Politicians face the door that’s closing on their conflicted and compromised careers of debt-financed-deficit-spending. This isn’t the time to give into their fear-mongering. This is going to open he door for a generational opportunity in America. This is great news.

On Friday, the stop-gap bill to keep the US Government open for business expires. With $14,272,778,776,442 in US Debt + another $55,800,000,000,000 in unfunded Medicare and Medicaid liabilities, I say shut these politicians down. The biggest risk to America today isn’t what’s happening in the Middle East or Japan – it’s the 112th Congress…”

Keith just linked to this Monday research note on Twitter and I had to post it here. Hope you’ll take a moment to read it and pass it along.

The History of Economic Cycles

Just a cool video I found on YouTube.

A short, “History of Economic Cycles” from 1800-2000, focusing on the contributions of Sir Willilam Herschel, Clement Juglar, William Stanley Jevons, Simon Kuznets, W.D. Gann, J.M. Hurst, R.N. Elliott, Joseph Schumpeter, and more.

Enjoy the clip!

3 Benefits of a Merchant Cash Advance

Every small business needs some financial assistance once in a while. Whether it’s to build up inventory, cover payroll during slow periods, or capitalize on a good opportunity, having access to quick cash is necessary. But sometimes it can be tough to get approved for loans at the bank, considering their very stringent lending rules and criteria.

Luckily, when the banks say no, there are plenty of other alternative lenders that will say yes.

A Merchant Cash Advance Can be the Answer For Your Small Business Financing Needs

A merchant cash advance has become extremely popular these days due to the flexible requirements for approval. This type of loan is secured by future credit card sales, which businesses gradually pay back by having a certain percentage of each credit card transaction deducted until the full loan is paid off.

Here are plenty of benefits of taking out a merchant cash advance, including the following.

  • No collateral or credit needed. A merchant cash advance is the perfect option for business owners who have bad credit or don’t have any collateral to offer. While traditional loans from the bank can affect your business credit rating, a merchant cash advance is considered a sales transaction, which means it stays off your credit report. You won’t risk losing any collateral either, which is a common issue when defaulting on a traditional loan.
  • Quick access to cash. The application process for a merchant cash advance is so short and easy, allowing for a fast turnaround with working capital loans. Traditional loans can take weeks to process, which means you’d have to wait quite a while before seeing any money. With merchant cash advances, on the other hand, the application and approval process is fast, which means access to cash is fast too.
  • High rate of approval. The approval of a merchant cash advance is dependent on your business’s performance and positive cash flow instead of your credit rating. For this reason, just about any stable business can qualify for this type of loan.

Merchant lenders offer small businesses a fantastic alternative to more stringent traditional loan processes. The application process is easy, approval is quick, and access to cash is fast. A merchant cash advance may be exactly what your small business needs!

Bonds vs. stocks, March 2009 – April 2013

Shared this relative performance chart of bonds vs. equities on StockTwits this morning, and wanted to post it here for our readers.

Here is TLT (US Treasury bonds) vs. the returns of QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) and SPY (S&P 500 ETF), from March 13, 2009 to April 30, 2013. 

As you can see from the chart above, TLT has gained about 20 percent (not including dividends) in this 4 year period. QQQ is up 144 percent and SPY is up 110 percent from the start of this recent bull market in equities. 

In terms of price (directional) correlation, you’ll note that while the QQQ and SPY are very closely linked, the two stock index ETFs seem negatively correlated with TLT. When stocks are up, government bonds are lagging and vice versa, at least for the period in question.

Peter Peterson interview on FT.com

Peter G. Peterson talks with FT.com about healthcare, entitlement spending, US reliance on foreign lending, and much more.

This is a 3 part video interview from FT’s “View from the Top” series; just follow the text or image links to get it rolling.

I don’t always agree with Peterson’s views, but I do often take the time to listen to what he has to say. Enjoy the discussion.

Related articles and posts:

1. A Conversation with Pete Peterson – Charlie Rose.

2. I.O.U.S.A. (the full movie online) – Google Video.

Bloomberg: Wells Fargo, large banks aided drug gangs

Here’s a rather interesting piece of reporting from Bloomberg: “Banks Financing Mexico Drug Gangs Admitted in Wells Fargo Deal”.

Just before sunset on April 10, 2006, a DC-9 jet landed at the international airport in the port city of Ciudad del Carmen, 500 miles east of Mexico City. As soldiers on the ground approached the plane, the crew tried to shoo them away, saying there was a dangerous oil leak. So the troops grew suspicious and searched the jet.

They found 128 black suitcases, packed with 5.7 tons of cocaine, valued at $100 million. The stash was supposed to have been delivered from Caracas to drug traffickers in Toluca, near Mexico City, Mexican prosecutors later found. Law enforcement officials also discovered something else.

The smugglers had bought the DC-9 with laundered funds they transferred through two of the biggest banks in the U.S.: Wachovia Corp. and Bank of America Corp., Bloomberg Markets magazine reports in its August 2010 issue.

This was no isolated incident. Wachovia, it turns out, had made a habit of helping move money for Mexican drug smugglers. Wells Fargo & Co., which bought Wachovia in 2008, has admitted in court that its unit failed to monitor and report suspected money laundering by narcotics traffickers — including the cash used to buy four planes that shipped a total of 22 tons of cocaine…”

This is a must read piece, and one that will surely lead you to consider the realities of criminal enterprise arising from the illegal drug trade.

There must be an inordinate amount of pressure and danger for bank insiders who try to blow the whistle on these money laundering activities. The lure of profits from laundered money must be great (surely greater than the settled fines) and the risk of crossing violent criminals with refusal to do business may be fatal.

Bloomberg’s piece also serves as testament to the fact that criminals will always find a way to work around intrusive laws, while law-abiding citizens who are not focused on evading the law will often be stymied or ensnared by these same regulations.

…No big U.S. bank — Wells Fargo included — has ever been indicted for violating the Bank Secrecy Act or any other federal law. Instead, the Justice Department settles criminal charges by using deferred-prosecution agreements, in which a bank pays a fine and promises not to break the law again…

…Large banks are protected from indictments by a variant of the too-big-to-fail theory.

Indicting a big bank could trigger a mad dash by investors to dump shares and cause panic in financial markets, says Jack Blum, a U.S. Senate investigator for 14 years and a consultant to international banks and brokerage firms on money laundering.

The theory is like a get-out-of-jail-free card for big banks, Blum says.

“There’s no capacity to regulate or punish them because they’re too big to be threatened with failure,” Blum says. “They seem to be willing to do anything that improves their bottom line, until they’re caught.”

Check out the full article, along with the related video clips from Bloomberg TV.

Related articles and posts:

1. Show us your money – Reason.

2. Feds sift through financial data – Finance Trends.

Paul Tudor Jones: “Trader” documentary

Paul Tudor Jones PTJ Trader Documentary

Watch legendary hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones at work in the 1987 documentary, Trader.

See especially PTJ’s comments on the importance of focusing on risk management in trading and investing (near the 33 minute mark): 

“Where you want to be is always in control, never wishing, always trading. And always, first and foremost, protecting your ass.

…That’s why most people lose money as traders or as individual investors because they’re not focused on the money they have at risk. If everyone spent 90% of their time on that instead of on how much money they’re going to make, they’d be incredibly successful as investors.” 

Classic stuff.

Related articles and posts:

1. Paul Tudor Jones on trading macro – Finance Trends.

2. Steve Cohen opens up to Paul Tudor Jones – Finance Trends.

3. Sebastian Mallaby interview: future of hedge funds – Finance Trends.